Archive for the ‘India’ Category
Field report – Future of India and commodities
In January, I was visiting a few villages in India partly to understand how global markets are affecting them. After spending a week in Europe and a few weeks Indian cities, the villages marked a refreshing contrast. As I walked in the fields, I saw that the villagers were happy, gave me free juicy sugarcanes and they were more upbeat about economy that anybody else. As we will see, if India were to consume as much oil per-capita as a relatively poorer Eastern European nation like Slovenia, it alone needs 30 million barrels/day (mbpd) more (40% of world consumption) apart from another 35 mbpd from China. If they both want to consume as much as US, India needs about 60 million addition barrels apart from 70 mbpd for China (current world production of the order of 85 mbpd).
These villages might never get to the economic level of an average American or European countryside, their per-capita income might never get closer to that of an average American, but the changes going on in these nameless places will have a profound impact on world’s commodity, tech and consumer markets. And this could change the wage-commodity price relationship substantially.
‘Slumdog Millionaire’ – A Stimulus package for India?
India started out deriding slumdog millionaire “poverty tourism”, but now has completely embraced. While 8 oscars is surely a big boost, it is the 2 Oscars given to A.R. Rahman that holds very special for most Indians. While it maybe just a movie, it might actually set off an interesting chain reaction.
It could help spread globalization and bring India more to the global markets. And it can open up newer products and newer markets to be created, and that could partly help economic revival. The story of 300 million middle class and 500 million other aspirants for middle class, all of whom barely tapped by global corporations, is not going to be lost even if S&P cuts Indian bonds to Junk tomorrow. Indian growth story is for there to stay, even if going with lesser hype and more reality. Slumdog is really the symbol of it. It shows India’s realities, but still manages to capitvate the global audience. Indians have no real reason to be embarrassed with the realities – it just happens for any growing country.
My 2020 Wishlist
1. Economical solar power (less than $0.05/kWh)
2. Economical water desalination (less than $0.001/gallon)
3. 100% global literacy
4. Democracy and Law & Order returning to Sub-saharan Africa
5. Poorest countries of developing world getting within a factor of ½ or more of developed world’s per-capita income (around $40K/yr)
6. Significant protection of coral reserves & tropical forests and help rebuild the damage to nature
7. Reversal of global warming using the cheap energy from #1
8. Eradication of most preventable, communicable diseases (including Polio, Malaria, Cholera, Tuberculosis and Typhoid)
9. Programmable homes, enabled by Nanomechanics, to enable changing in color, structure and other physical properties on demand, and making homes extremely cheap, mass producible and still satisfy consumer choices
10. Foldable, collapsible cars that can completely compact on demand (you can park the car in the closet) and give options to hold from 1 to 10 passengers, with adjustable sizes, and passing all the crash tests.
Header Image from: http://www.flickr.com/photos/66164549@N00/2455160742/
H1b and Innovation
Here is an interesting paper on H1b and the contribution to innovation.
http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/09-005.pdf
It’s a pretty long paper and some parts of it are too technical. So, I have reorganized into two main themes and summarized the contents below.
Major terror attack in Mumbai
Terrorists have yet again struck Mumbai, the financial center of India. The attack around 10:30 pm Indian standard Time, was one of the most daring things in the recent times.
India has been plagued by insurgents for the last couple of decades and is related to the global terror attacks emanating from Islamic insurgency in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The attacks seems to have been highly coordinated and aims to scare away away the tourists and other foreign visitors from the Indian financial capital. The information available currently is pretty sketchy and a detailed report will be made in this blog soon. One only hopes that International community will collaborate stronger with India in rooting out this global terror mania.
Image source: Guardian
Credit troubles looming in India
India was overheating at such a rate this was waiting to happen. The salaries of one segment went completely different from the rest of the segments, consumption patterns got dramatically altered and screwed up the inflation. Indian (Un)real estate had no connections to its real economy.
